RAM revised Malaysia GDP down to negative 3.3% for 2009
Filed Under (Economic News) by Webmaster on 29-07-2009
Tagged Under : GDP, malaysia, RAM rating
RAM Rating Services Bhd (RAM Ratings) has revised downward its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2009 to a 3.3 per cent decline from its earlier estimate of 0.9 per cent growth.
However, it has raised the country’s GDP forecast for 2010 to 4.9 per cent from 3.8 per cent as the global recession eases and benefits from aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures filter.
The downward revision came primarily because of a sharper-than-anticipated decline in both external and domestic demand.
In its “Economic Outlook Review and Update” report issued yesterday, the local rating agency said a contraction in global output is now inevitable in 2009.
“Since our GDP forecasts released in February, there have been marked downward revisions in the growth expectations of Malaysia’s trading partners. In this context, we revisit the risk of a deeper export shock and its second-order impact on domestic demand in Malaysia,” it said.
RAM said the collapse in domestic demand in the first quarter of 2009 had shown closer-than-expected linkage with the export-oriented sector through the labour market and private investment.
It said Malaysia’s recovery in 2009 and 2010 will likely be modest due to the present lack of export demand in crisis-hit countries, mainly comprising advanced economies.
Similarly, economic growth in export-driven countries is also envisaged to remain weak over the same period.
“With only tepid recovery now the most likely outcome for advanced economies, Malaysia’s export performance in 2009 has been revised downwards to a 17.4 per cent contraction (from an initial 5 per cent decline), before a moderate 6.4 per cent recovery in 2010,” it said.
